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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-09-17T03:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-09-17T03:05Z
CME Note: Clear increase in velocity, density and temperature at ACE, followed by a flux rope signature beginning at 20:24Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-09-21T03:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-09-20T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 16/2300Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 360
Longitude (deg): 20E
Latitude (deg): 9N
Half-angular width (deg): 10deg

Notes: A narrow CME from filament eruption around 16/0900Z with 'footprint' changes visible in SDO 193. It is weakly visible on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A coronagraphs. It is hard to analyse and very unlikely to see any significant impacts at Earth. The ENLIL model has it mainly passing to the east, but some of the ensemble members suggest a noticeable arrival at Earth. Confidence is low that it will be detected at Earth.  
Space weather advisor: AMS

Lead Time: 63.15 hour(s)
Difference: 15.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2019-09-18T12:30Z

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